Kennedy’s Independent Bid: A Potential Game-Changer in 2024 Presidential Race
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The news article discusses the potential impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to run as an independent candidate in the 2024 presidential election. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
Kennedy’s Independent Bid: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. initially intended to run in the Democratic primary but later decided to run as an independent. This decision raised concerns among Democrats, who feared that Kennedy’s candidacy might split the Democratic vote, making it easier for Trump to win.
Polling Data:
In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump (without Kennedy), Biden had a slight lead with 49% support compared to Trump’s 46%.
When Kennedy was added to the equation, Biden’s lead over Trump increased. Biden had 44% support, while Trump’s support dropped to 37%. Kennedy’s presence in the race seems to be taking more votes away from Trump than from Biden.
Another poll by Ipsos/Reuters earlier in the month showed Biden and Trump very close, with 31% and 33% support respectively, while Kennedy had 14%.
Analysis: Lee M. Miringoff, the director of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, suggests that Kennedy’s presence in the race currently benefits Biden. He also points out that about one in six voters are looking for an alternative to the two main candidates, especially among independent voters.
Kennedy’s Popularity: Interestingly, despite Kennedy’s Democratic origins, he seems to be more popular among Republicans than Democrats. This is evident from the fact that in five recent polls, Kennedy had higher favorability ratings among Republicans than Democrats.
Implications: If these polling trends continue, Kennedy’s independent bid could indeed be more of a threat to Trump than to Biden. This is contrary to the initial fears of many Democrats. However, it’s essential to note that election dynamics can change, and it’s hard to predict the final outcome based solely on current polling.
